odds of making your hand....

[quintass]

Here is Lou Krieger's simplified method to quickly figure the "odds of making your hand" at a live table, and I quote:

"An easy method involves multiplying your outs by two, then adding two to that sum. The result is a rough percentage of the chance that you’ll make your hand. Suppose you have a flush draw on the turn. You have nine outs. Nine times 2 equal 18, and 18 plus 2 equals 20. That’s pretty close to the 19.6 percent chance you’d come up with if you worked out the answer mathematically."


Now Im thinking, shouldn't there be consideration factored into this equation for other players holding some of your "out" cards. The above example states you have 9 outs. What if 3 of those "out" cards are other players hole cards? Well now you only have 6 "out" cards instead of 9. So 6 x 2 + 2 is only a 14% chance to make your hand not 18. Doesn't that make a difference in all of this?

quint    :?

[donfromtexas]

You have a point Quint, but it does not apply for the percentages. The only way you can do the percentages is to consider all your outs in the remaining deck. Otherwise you would never know what percent chance you have... the other player going against you could have the same exact cards.... then you would have to figure in the odds of him hitting the flush vs you hitting the flush to win the hand...

The only thing the odds are for is to give you an insight in to whether or not you should call.

I for one like the POT ODDS.... say your sitting there in the BB with a crap hand.... you couldnt possibly call a raise.... but first position raises 2x the BB... and 5-6 players ahead of you call...... what should you do with your 7 2 os ??  Your last to act here preflop and you are getting well over 10:1 odds on your money to call... you have to assume that every player on the table has at least decent cards.... so you now stand a good chance of hitting 7's or 2's on the flop... if they dont hit, you check it post flop and see what happens... but the odds are definately with you to call preflop.  

And just think of the names people will call you when you hit 772 on the flop  :lol: